Intervention against Raja Pervaiz Ashraf provokes fear that fragile democracy could be derailed
Pakistan supreme court has ordered the arrest of the prime minister, Raja Pervaiz Ashraf, on corruption charges, heightening fears that the country’s fragile democracy could be derailed by the campaign of tens of thousands of anti-corruption protesters camped out on the streets outside parliament.
The unexpected announcement came as Tahir-ul-Qadri, an Islamic scholar who led a “million-man march” on Islamabad on Monday, addressed his supporters, railing against the electoral malpractice of Pakistan’s political class. When news of the order spread, the crowd erupted in cries of “long live the supreme court”.
The previous night Qadri had told those camped out on Islamabad’s central avenue that the government, led by the Pakistan People’s party (PPP), had lost all right to rule, declaring that the “false mandate of the rulers” was over.
For some protesters, who claimed to see the name of Allah in the clouds above Islamabad, the court’s decision was a sign of divine intervention in favour of their sit-in, which began on Monday afternoon. But for many other observers the timing of the announcement increased fears of an establishment attempt to force out a civilian government in a country that has been ruled by the military for half its history.
Ayesha Siddiqa, a staunch critic of the military, said that although there was no direct evidence of army involvement she was certain the arrest order amounted to a “back-door break-in”.
“It is too much of a coincidence that the minute Qadri comes and very confidently announces that the government is over and done with there is this decision by the supreme court,” she said.
The Karachi stock exchange plunged as investors reacted badly to yet more political instability, with the PPP struggling to become Pakistan’s first civilian government to finish a full term in office.
There have been suggestions that Qadri, 61, may be a stalking horse for both the military and judiciary ever since he tapped into popular disenchantment with the government by holding a rally in Lahore last month.
He has called for the exclusion of any politicians who have broken the law or failed to pay their taxes in a country where tax avoidance is rife. And he does not want the established political parties, which he regards as bastions of feudalism and corruption, to be responsible for picking the caretaker government that is supposed to run the country in the runup to elections due in the spring.
He has said he does not want any delay to the election schedule, but analysts fear a plot to install a government of army-backed technocrats that could rule for an extended period.
Both the judges and the generals are highly antagonistic towards the country’s civilian politicians, whom they regard as corrupt and unable to grapple with Pakistan’s acute crises of domestic terrorism and a collapsing economy.
Last year the supreme court forced the resignation of another prime minister, Yousaf Raza Gilani, after finding him guilty of contempt of court.
On Tuesday afternoon Qadri appeared to confirm many people’s fears by heaping praise on the army and judges. He said: “There are only two institutions in Pakistan that are functioning and doing their duties of the people. One is the judiciary of Pakistan and one is the armed forces of Pakistan and nothing else.”
Fawad Chaudhry, an aide to Ashraf, told Reuters that he had “no doubt” the supreme court and the army were attempting to topple the government through the arrest order and Qadri’s demonstration.
Few people question that Ashraf has a case to answer for his alleged involvement in a corruption scandal when he was minister in charge of electricity. Ashraf has always denied charges that he accepted kickbacks in return for handing out contracts for “rental power” plants.
Salman Raja, a senior lawyer, questioned the timing of the supreme court’s decision to order a senior anti-corruption investigator to “undertake all the necessary steps during the course of the day” to arrest Ashraf and 16 others implicated in the scandal.
“Could they not have delayed it another two weeks?” asked Raja. “It is clearly unfortunate time in the sense that it just strengthens conspiracy theories.”
Whether or not the government can survive depends on the attitude of other established political parties. So far all of them, including Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, have insisted the elections go ahead in accordance with the constitution.
Ashraf may be able to cling on as prime minister even if he is arrested. Or the parties could move quickly to strike an agreement on the makeup of a caretaker government.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jan/15/pakistan-orders-arrest-prime-minister